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A prediction method of the basic reproduction number and diffusion study of the novel Covid-19 disease in Italy

In the attached document, Prof. Simone Cialdi (Physics Department "Aldo Pontremoli"), in collaboration with Prof. Carlo La Vecchia (Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health), presents an analysis of the epidemic by a mathematical and statistical model specifically tailored to the Covid-19 case.

The work, motivated to determine useful indications on the evolution of the epidemic, on its temporal evolution, and on the effectiveness of containment measures, highlights strongly the difficulties to find out reliable data concerning the Covid-19 outbreak. Given the strong data uncertainties, no mathematical model can provide reliable predictions.

30 March 2020
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